Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 SHV 10:08 → DFW 11:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OH 5666 SHV 16:10 → DFW 17:54 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SHV 10:08	DFW 11:24	8%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 6419 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 06:00	DFW 07:10	8%	5%	0.6%	91%
OO 6331 SkyWest	SHV 11:43	DFW 12:57	10%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 6341 SkyWest	SHV 08:24	DFW 09:45	11%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3479 Envoy	SHV 14:26	DFW 15:37	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 19:41	DFW 20:55	12%	5%	0.6%	62%
OH 5666 PSA	SHV 16:10	DFW 17:54	14%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON