Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5843 SHV 07:12 → IAH 08:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5959 SHV 17:56 → IAH 19:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5843 SkyWest	SHV 07:12	IAH 08:46	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 5804 SkyWest	SHV 09:27	IAH 11:00	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 4957 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	SHV 11:43	IAH 12:56	13%	3%	0.8%	81%
UA 5837 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 15:35	IAH 16:50	14%	4%	0.5%	70%
UA 5959 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:56	IAH 19:10	16%	4%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON