Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 73 SIT 06:03 → JNU 06:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 67 SIT 19:30 → JNU 20:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 73 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 06:03	JNU 06:46	8%	3%	1.9%	90%
AS 7004 Alaska	SIT 18:45	JNU 19:34	13%	3%	1.8%	no record
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	SIT 19:30	JNU 20:12	15%	3%	1.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON