Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3568 at 08:36, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3568 Southwest	SJC 08:36	BNA 14:47	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	8h 35m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 13:32 → BNA 15:39DL 8949	7h 19m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	7h 16m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 19m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	58m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	6h 51m	95%	81%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:09 → BNA 16:16AA 1181	8h 15m	98%	77%
American Details →	SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:28 → BNA 23:29AA 1500	9h 26m	97%	76%
American Details →	SJC 14:37 → DFW 20:24AA 2834	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:15 → BNA 23:16AA 3230	6h 39m	79%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON