tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3569 at 13:32, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3569 Southwest SJC 13:32 BOI 16:16 8% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → BOI 12:16DL 2095 5h 16m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Los Angeles LAX 19:59 → BOI 22:58DL 4148 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 100% 90%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 3h 15m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 6h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:55 → SEA 17:09DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Seattle SEA 19:40 → BOI 22:18DL 3692 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111 6h 04m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:15AA 1358 2h 03m Phoenix PHX 10:18 → BOI 13:42AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 6h 41m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Seattle SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Seattle SEA 16:10 → BOI 18:46DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON