Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2753 SJC 07:57 → BUR 09:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1662 SJC 17:49 → BUR 19:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2753 Southwest	SJC 07:57	BUR 09:12	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2497 Southwest	SJC 10:17	BUR 11:32	7%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 2396 Southwest	SJC 15:03	BUR 16:18	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
WN 2756 Southwest	SJC 12:02	BUR 13:17	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1662 Southwest	SJC 17:49	BUR 19:05	9%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON