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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 7h 46m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 38m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 8h 49m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 12m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:55 → DCA 19:15AA 2520 10h 14m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 9h 02m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 8h 56m 94% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:39 → SEA 10:54AS 762 2h 52m Seattle SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2 10h 20m 100% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON