Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3578 SJC 06:41 → DEN 10:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3580 SJC 13:21 → DEN 16:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3578 Southwest	SJC 06:41	DEN 10:14	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2013 United	SJC 08:41	DEN 12:30	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3579 Southwest	SJC 10:49	DEN 14:23	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1035 United Flight history →	SJC 18:37	DEN 22:16	10%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 2076 United	SJC 12:50	DEN 16:29	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3580 Southwest	SJC 13:21	DEN 16:54	15%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON