Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1019 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1019 SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2046 SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:37	DFW 20:24	16%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 12:03	DFW 17:45	19%	5%	0.8%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	5h 30m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON