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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 7h 46m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 59m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 09:31 → PDX 11:33AS 2274 · flown by Horizon 3h 24m Portland PDX 14:57 → EWR 23:06AS 642 10h 35m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 33m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:47 → SEA 18:56AS 745 3h 44m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 11h 12m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 8h 18m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527 8h 14m 95% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON