Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:31 am at San Jose); 2 already left

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:25, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops today


WN 3585 Southwest	SJC 18:38	HNL 20:59	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3555 Southwest	SJC 13:51	HNL 16:31	21%	3%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → HNL 19:39DL 419	11h 04m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	SJC 16:46 → SEA 18:54AS 521	2h 11m Seattle	SEA 21:05 → HNL 00:01 +1AS 901	10h 15m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	SJC 16:25 → LAX 17:49DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	48m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	7h 57m	75%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON