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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 18:37, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:16UA 1035 1h 43m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 50m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 01m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 10h 19m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 44m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 3h 24m Seattle SEA 15:54 → IAD 00:11 +1AS 675 10h 52m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 33m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:47 → SEA 18:56AS 745 3h 47m Seattle SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367 10h 52m 100% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON