tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 17m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 19m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 00m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 6h 08m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:31DL 1131 8h 56m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 8h 21m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 51m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON