Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:13, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SJC 16:13 → PHX 18:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	3h 35m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 34m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 55m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:05 +1DL 2692	7h 55m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	9h 15m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:11 +1DL 1044	9h 36m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 40m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	9h 55m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → JFK 23:11AA 481	8h 08m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON