Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2972 SJC 06:36 → LAS 08:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3749 SJC 13:46 → LAS 15:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2972 Southwest	SJC 06:36	LAS 08:07	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4109 Southwest	SJC 08:46	LAS 10:17	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1088 Southwest	SJC 11:01	LAS 12:32	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1407 Southwest	SJC 19:44	LAS 21:14	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 367 Southwest	SJC 18:19	LAS 19:49	7%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1702 Southwest	SJC 11:56	LAS 13:26	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3593 Southwest	SJC 16:39	LAS 18:09	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3749 Southwest	SJC 13:46	LAS 15:16	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON