Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1362 SJC 06:58 → LAX 08:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3601 SJC 19:02 → LAX 20:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1362 Delta	SJC 06:58	LAX 08:19	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	7%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:41	LAX 13:02	7%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:25	LAX 22:00	7%	5%	0.6%	92%
WN 2347 Southwest	SJC 09:39	LAX 10:56	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4537 Southwest	SJC 13:29	LAX 14:46	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	SJC 18:17	LAX 19:38	9%	5%	1.3%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 16:18	LAX 17:43	10%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	SJC 09:48	LAX 11:13	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1881 Southwest	SJC 16:56	LAX 18:13	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3601 Southwest	SJC 19:02	LAX 20:20	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON