Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733	7h 30m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756	7h 29m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	10h 52m	99%	68%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:00 → LGA 18:42AA 1806	9h 41m	98%	59%
American Details →	SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → LGA 23:37AA 1375	8h 34m	85%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON