Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	9h 15m	99%	82%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:15AA 1358	3h 58m Phoenix	PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:48AA 404	10h 47m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:02 → MIA 19:01DL 719	9h 26m	99%	75%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:48 → MIA 16:53AA 2461	7h 52m	95%	70%
American Details →	SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → MIA 00:08 +1AA 2090	9h 05m	94%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON