Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2156 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:20	MSP 11:59	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2383 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:10	MSP 18:44	8%	3%	0.7%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 40m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:29DL 809	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	9h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 47m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 07:20 → SEA 09:42DL 4041 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 12:10 → MSP 17:28DL 536	8h 08m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	10h 40m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:55 → SEA 17:09DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest	56m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	6h 35m	89%	79%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → MSP 17:12AA 2406	9h 11m	98%	77%
American Details →	SJC 12:03 → DFW 17:45AA 2046	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	9h 54m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON