Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 754 SJC 07:01 → PDX 08:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2240 SJC 18:56 → PDX 20:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 754 Alaska	SJC 07:01	PDX 08:56	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 3379 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:48	PDX 13:49	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 2749 Southwest	SJC 12:24	PDX 14:16	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SJC 09:31	PDX 11:33	7%	2%	1.8%	96%
WN 714 Southwest	SJC 19:34	PDX 21:26	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 694 Alaska	SJC 14:50	PDX 16:45	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 2240 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SJC 18:56	PDX 20:50	13%	3%	1.8%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON