Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4986 SJC 07:57 → PHX 09:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3940 SJC 16:13 → PHX 18:15 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4986 Southwest	SJC 07:57	PHX 09:49	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1358 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	PHX 08:15	6%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 148 Southwest	SJC 12:04	PHX 13:56	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3616 Southwest	SJC 15:41	PHX 17:34	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 900 Southwest	SJC 18:41	PHX 20:33	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SJC 16:13	PHX 18:15	13%	3%	0.8%	97%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON