Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	6h 46m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 09m	98%	90%
American Details →	SJC 06:01 → PHX 08:19AA 1358	1h 57m Phoenix	PHX 10:16 → RNO 12:17AA 1437	6h 16m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	SJC 09:31 → PDX 11:33AS 2274 · flown by Horizon	3h 34m Portland	PDX 15:07 → RNO 16:45AS 2087 · flown by Horizon	7h 14m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	SJC 07:52 → SEA 10:01AS 1304	1h 52m Seattle	SEA 11:53 → RNO 13:50AS 273	5h 58m	98%	79%
American Details →	SJC 14:37 → DFW 20:24AA 2834	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:28 → RNO 23:12AA 1273	8h 35m	82%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON