Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3619 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3619 SJC 06:26 → SAN 07:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3039 SJC 10:08 → SAN 11:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3619 Southwest	SJC 06:26	SAN 07:54	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3620 Southwest	SJC 08:44	SAN 10:12	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1982 Southwest	SJC 11:32	SAN 13:00	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 436 Southwest	SJC 15:57	SAN 17:25	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3212 SkyWest	SJC 20:14	SAN 21:51	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 4540 Southwest	SJC 12:58	SAN 14:26	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3627 Southwest	SJC 20:16	SAN 21:44	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1132 Southwest	SJC 10:19	SAN 11:47	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3621 Southwest	SJC 14:26	SAN 15:54	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3626 Southwest	SJC 19:00	SAN 20:28	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3148 Southwest	SJC 17:09	SAN 18:48	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 1448 Alaska	SJC 07:25	SAN 08:56	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3039 SkyWest	SJC 10:08	SAN 11:45	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
AS 2213 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 20:12	SAN 21:48	41%	8%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON