Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3628 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3628 SJC 06:31 → SEA 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 762 SJC 08:39 → SEA 10:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3628 Southwest	SJC 06:31	SEA 08:38	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4100 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:59	SEA 23:23	6%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 4041 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 07:20	SEA 09:42	7%	3%	0.5%	95%
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	SEA 13:55	8%	4%	0.5%	92%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:55	SEA 20:13	9%	4%	0.5%	87%
DL 3789 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SEA 17:09	10%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 3195 Southwest	SJC 12:53	SEA 15:00	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2449 Southwest	SJC 17:05	SEA 19:12	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 745 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 16:47	SEA 18:56	16%	4%	0.7%	83%
AS 1311 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 10:19	SEA 12:30	18%	3%	0.7%	91%
AS 1398 Alaska	SJC 19:40	SEA 21:48	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 659 Alaska	SJC 14:09	SEA 16:18	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 762 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:39	SEA 10:54	21%	3%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON