Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 346 SJC 07:24 → SNA 08:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 451 SJC 11:00 → SNA 12:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 346 Southwest	SJC 07:24	SNA 08:47	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2884 Southwest	SJC 08:46	SNA 10:10	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1765 Southwest	SJC 14:51	SNA 16:15	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2888 Southwest	SJC 17:59	SNA 19:23	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3640 Southwest	SJC 19:41	SNA 21:05	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 451 Southwest	SJC 11:00	SNA 12:24	11%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON