Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	8h 33m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	9h 17m	99%	86%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 10:27 → JFK 14:30B6 904	2h 16m New York	JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26B6 1202	7h 59m	96%	80%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	1h 26m Charlotte	CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703	7h 11m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854	1h 59m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	99%	77%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 11:12 → MCO 14:29B6 1334	3h 26m Orlando	MCO 17:55 → BUF 20:46B6 1586	9h 34m	98%	72%
Frontier Details →	SJU 06:28 → ATL 10:41F9 2871	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:45 → BUF 13:53F9 1408	7h 25m	85%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON