Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3642 Southwest	SJU 06:06	BWI 10:21	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4064 Southwest	SJU 14:29	BWI 18:29	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	8h 23m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780	2h 16m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	8h 21m	98%	90%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 23m Houston	IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720	9h 30m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	54m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	6h 44m	91%	80%
American Details →	SJU 11:54 → MIA 14:44AA 1341	3h 52m Miami	MIA 18:36 → BWI 21:24AA 3216	9h 30m	98%	64%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 17m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27B6 2994	6h 27m	80%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON