tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Frontier via MCO, leaving 03:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
FrontierDetails → SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823 3h 30m Orlando MCO 09:40 → DFW 11:39F9 2885 9h 29m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 2h 46m Houston IAH 21:37 → DFW 22:59UA 1183 9h 04m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:46 → DFW 16:16UA 1388 10h 16m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921 9h 15m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 22:07 → DFW 23:58AA 1256 9h 18m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368 2h 38m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 11h 19m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 1h 57m Newark EWR 07:07 → DFW 09:35UA 1494 9h 35m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → DFW 21:35DL 3161 7h 53m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON