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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Newark, leaving 01:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219 3h 34m Newark EWR 08:44 → DTW 10:47UA 3700 · flown by Republic 9h 47m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 8h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 1h 25m New York JFK 12:55 → DTW 14:42DL 1654 7h 07m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173 3h 43m Newark EWR 21:22 → DTW 23:31UA 3412 · flown by Republic 10h 06m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651 9h 02m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940 7h 09m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780 2h 46m Boston BOS 21:05 → DTW 23:21DL 2896 9h 13m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 2h 11m New York JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253 8h 54m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON