Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2024 at 16:55, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2024 United Flight history →	SJU 16:55	IAD 20:56	10%	3%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	9h 16m	99%	89%
United Details →	SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → IAD 00:36 +1UA 1922	8h 40m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 51m	94%	83%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 20m Houston	IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366	9h 30m	97%	83%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 21:24 → IAD 22:56AA 2608	7h 16m	96%	83%
United Details →	SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668	1h 32m Houston	IAH 20:23 → IAD 00:40 +1UA 1968	9h 45m	96%	82%
Frontier Details →	SJU 03:10 → MCO 06:10F9 1823	1h 51m Orlando	MCO 08:01 → IAD 10:16F9 4230	7h 06m	95%	80%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	50m Newark	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	6h 22m	83%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON