Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1644 United Flight history →	SJU 07:00	IAH 10:53	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 668 United Flight history →	SJU 14:55	IAH 18:51	14%	3%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	2h 49m Newark	EWR 07:59 → IAH 10:44UA 332	10h 44m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:51DL 1223	9h 21m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	7h 42m	97%	87%
United Details →	SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	9h 38m	95%	85%
United Details →	SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368	2h 13m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	11h 19m	98%	83%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 22:15 → IAH 00:12 +1UA 1463	8h 17m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 07m	90%	81%
United Details →	SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173	3h 11m Newark	EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425	11h 18m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON