Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 562 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 562 SJU 05:33 → MCO 08:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 934 SJU 14:46 → MCO 18:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 562 Southwest	SJU 05:33	MCO 08:40	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 724 Southwest	SJU 08:24	MCO 11:27	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3645 Southwest	SJU 10:34	MCO 13:40	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:57	MCO 09:13	8%	4%	1.3%	83%
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:14	MCO 11:35	10%	4%	1.0%	70%
WN 3648 Southwest	SJU 11:54	MCO 14:58	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:37	MCO 13:58	12%	4%	2.7%	87%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:12	MCO 14:29	15%	6%	1.2%	73%
WN 701 Southwest	SJU 19:04	MCO 22:09	16%	9%	1.8%	no record
WN 3650 Southwest	SJU 17:19	MCO 20:25	16%	9%	2.1%	no record
WN 3649 Southwest	SJU 13:49	MCO 16:54	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	18%	9%	3.2%	81%
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:26	MCO 21:38	24%	11%	3.6%	86%worse than usual
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:42	MCO 21:59	26%	14%	1.9%	63%
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:46	MCO 18:04	31%	11%	1.8%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON