Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3089 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 SJU 05:52 → MIA 08:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 967 SJU 16:33 → MIA 19:24 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American Flight history →	SJU 05:52	MIA 08:52	6%	3%	0.8%	97%
F9 3377 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:03	MIA 06:08	11%	6%	1.3%	81%
AA 1341 American Flight history →	SJU 11:54	MIA 14:44	15%	7%	0.9%	82%
AA 1734 American	SJU 15:00	MIA 17:55	28%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 967 American Flight history →	SJU 16:33	MIA 19:24	28%	12%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON