Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2088 United Flight history →	SJU 15:56	ORD 20:15	21%	8%	1.1%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668	3h 17m Houston	IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752	10h 50m	99%	86%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → ORD 23:48AA 627	9h 08m	99%	80%
American Details →	SJU 16:33 → MIA 19:24AA 967	2h 51m Miami	MIA 22:15 → ORD 00:37 +1AA 2634	9h 04m	95%	79%
United Details →	SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368	2h 07m Denver	DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:45UA 377	11h 05m	98%	78%
United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 02m Houston	IAH 11:55 → ORD 14:40UA 1691	8h 40m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	7h 44m	99%	77%
United Details →	SJU 01:00 → EWR 05:10UA 2219	2h 49m Newark	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	9h 43m	96%	76%
United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 20m Dulles	IAD 22:16 → ORD 23:14UA 421	7h 19m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON