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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:30 → ATL 11:14DL 1763 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101 8h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30DL 1854 3h 36m New York JFK 15:06 → ORF 16:30DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor 8h 55m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 39m Dulles IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677 6h 49m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 22:25 → ORF 23:41AA 2674 8h 01m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731 7h 48m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966 3h 50m New York JFK 21:09 → ORF 22:33DL 5326 · flown by Endeavor 9h 23m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → ORF 00:42 +1DL 2338 6h 52m 93% 83%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 46m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:33 → ORF 22:57B6 1800 8h 52m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154 51m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:33 → ORF 22:57B6 1800 5h 57m 66% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON