Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1048 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 1048 SJU 07:45 → PHL 11:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1725 SJU 17:22 → PHL 21:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1048 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 07:45	PHL 11:46	9%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 621 American	SJU 14:10	PHL 18:12	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 2695 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 00:54	PHL 05:00	24%	11%	1.0%	73%
F9 1725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 17:22	PHL 21:30	30%	10%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON