Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 452 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day B6 452 SJU 09:27 → TPA 12:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 2541 SJU 16:34 → TPA 19:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 452 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 09:27	TPA 12:44	11%	4%	1.0%	97%
WN 4317 Southwest	SJU 13:24	TPA 16:30	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
F9 2541 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 16:34	TPA 19:59	25%	6%	1.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON