tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 15:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817 3h 21m Seattle SEA 19:49 → ANC 22:53DL 2367 9h 38m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 2h 47m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 8h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411 10h 57m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:27AA 399 13h 27m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 30m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 11h 50m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280 10h 29m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:33 → PDX 13:38AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest 53m Portland PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:30AS 315 6h 57m 91% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734 3h 38m Seattle SEA 20:54 → ANC 23:41AS 228 9h 41m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 11:17 → SEA 12:30AS 796 52m Seattle SEA 13:22 → ANC 16:10AS 1440 6h 53m 65% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON