tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 13:50, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1028 Delta SLC 00:13 BWI 06:25 8% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3657 Southwest SLC 11:15 BWI 17:18 13% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 17:54 → BWI 21:29DL 2918 8h 19m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 6h 53m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 8h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 9h 31m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 19m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 45m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Denver DEN 14:11 → BWI 19:49UA 363 9h 19m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 49m Detroit DTW 20:04 → BWI 21:45DL 2715 5h 55m 73% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON