Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5683 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5683 SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4252 SLC 16:11 → DEN 17:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 05:15	DEN 06:54	3%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 3658 Southwest	SLC 06:42	DEN 08:07	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 4720 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:00	DEN 14:46	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 1317 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	DEN 09:12	7%	1%	0.5%	95%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	SLC 07:00	DEN 08:42	7%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 4399 Southwest	SLC 12:22	DEN 13:47	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5642 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 08:30	DEN 10:27	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:15	DEN 11:47	9%	2%	0.5%	84%
WN 4673 Southwest	SLC 08:37	DEN 10:02	10%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2090 United	SLC 10:27	DEN 11:54	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1667 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:30	DEN 22:01	12%	2%	0.5%	79%
OO 5752 SkyWest	SLC 18:05	DEN 19:56	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2410 Southwest	SLC 19:05	DEN 20:30	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3982 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 11:31	DEN 13:12	14%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 1586 Delta Flight history →	SLC 18:30	DEN 20:01	16%	3%	0.5%	71%
UA 1955 United	SLC 19:04	DEN 20:31	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3662 Southwest	SLC 15:36	DEN 17:01	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 3862 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 08:16	DEN 10:01	19%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 375 Southwest	SLC 17:06	DEN 18:33	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:24	DEN 16:54	20%	2%	0.5%	85%
UA 1662 United Flight history →	SLC 14:28	DEN 16:11	21%	4%	0.5%	79%
F9 4252 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 16:11	DEN 17:52	22%	5%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON