Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1214 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 1214 SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1871 SLC 14:12 → DFW 17:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1214 American Flight history →	SLC 05:00	DFW 08:46	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:55	DFW 11:37	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 644 American Flight history →	SLC 07:03	DFW 10:45	7%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 2195 American Flight history →	SLC 08:00	DFW 11:47	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:50	DFW 13:30	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 1456 American Flight history →	SLC 19:30	DFW 23:30	12%	6%	1.0%	62%
AA 1878 American	SLC 11:18	DFW 15:00	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 2811 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:50	DFW 17:33	15%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 2796 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:40	DFW 21:23	15%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 1871 American	SLC 14:12	DFW 17:55	19%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON