Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2033 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:29	EWR 16:49	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 2109 United	SLC 11:43	EWR 18:14	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	7h 56m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	7h 35m	98%	87%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	46m Denver	DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640	6h 12m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	7h 54m	99%	85%
United Details →	SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 15:00 → EWR 23:50UA 2248	12h 01m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	7h 53m	99%	83%
United Details →	SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497	2h 43m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	9h 37m	98%	83%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	1h 23m Denver	DEN 10:05 → EWR 16:02UA 2381	7h 02m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON