Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 4234 at 20:50, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4234 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:50	GJT 21:55	4%	1%	0.5%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44UA 4704 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	91%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 42m Denver	DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714	5h 31m	99%	90%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	99%	90%
American Details →	SLC 12:17 → PHX 13:02AA 6422 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Phoenix	PHX 16:05 → GJT 18:42AA 6491 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	98%	90%
United Details →	SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662	3h 14m Denver	DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431	6h 06m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON