Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 553 SLC 08:29 → HNL 10:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 861 SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 553 Alaska	SLC 08:29	HNL 10:40	17%	7%	0.4%	no record
DL 316 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:45	HNL 14:19	18%	3%	0.8%	83%
AS 714 Alaska	SLC 09:13	HNL 11:50	20%	7%	0.4%	no record
DL 861 Delta	SLC 11:46	HNL 14:35	22%	4%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	1h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 13m	97%	76%
United Details →	SLC 07:11 → LAX 08:17UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest	48m Los Angeles	LAX 09:05 → HNL 11:53UA 1158	8h 42m	77%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON