Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 897 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 897 SLC 06:21 → LAS 06:49 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1672 SLC 15:30 → LAS 15:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 897 Southwest	SLC 06:21	LAS 06:49	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1698 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:25	LAS 08:50	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 4408 Southwest	SLC 12:49	LAS 13:16	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 124 Southwest	SLC 17:04	LAS 17:32	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1659 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:35	LAS 12:01	11%	2%	0.6%	77%
F9 2575 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 13:47	LAS 14:21	11%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 1672 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:30	LAS 15:55	13%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON