Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2056 at 17:25, 16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2056 SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1691 SLC 11:22 → MCO 17:42 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2056 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	MCO 23:55	16%	6%	1.2%	82%
DL 2032 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	MCO 16:13	18%	5%	2.3%	84%
DL 1691 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:22	MCO 17:42	23%	6%	2.3%	84%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:32 → MCO 13:23AA 2750	6h 23m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	6h 27m	89%	72%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 30m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON