tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 2515 at 13:40, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2515 Delta Flight history → SLC 13:40 MEM 17:40 10% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681 9h 09m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 2h 14m Denver DEN 10:56 → MEM 14:21UA 2789 6h 21m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 2h 33m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 7h 15m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:19AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 8h 19m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501 8h 49m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 6h 20m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 20:10 → MEM 20:33DL 3020 8h 28m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 16:11 → ORD 20:24UA 1963 56m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 10m 71% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON