tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:10, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2040 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:00 MIA 05:40 9% 3% 0.8% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SLC 19:09 → PHX 19:50AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 9h 19m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 20m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Denver DEN 09:54 → MIA 16:03UA 1418 8h 48m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 7h 35m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 1h 03m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 02m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:28 → MIA 14:33AA 1454 7h 33m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 09:00 → MIA 16:41AA 1968 7h 28m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 7h 55m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON