tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 623 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:30 OGG 14:08 22% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 40m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 47m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 2h 10m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 10h 21m 95% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 12:25 → PDX 13:29AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:31AS 353 9h 06m 95% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m San Diego SAN 10:58 → OGG 13:40AS 232 10h 00m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 09:39 → SEA 10:41AS 719 3h 12m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 11h 20m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 19m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON