Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2883 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2883 SLC 06:16 → ORD 10:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1963 SLC 16:11 → ORD 20:24 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2883 American Flight history →	SLC 06:16	ORD 10:33	9%	5%	1.4%	85%
DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	12%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	14%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 3072 American	SLC 11:33	ORD 15:43	19%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 1873 American	SLC 16:56	ORD 21:28	24%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 13:28	ORD 17:36	25%	12%	1.3%	60%
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	26%	8%	0.7%	75%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:40	ORD 18:57	26%	10%	0.7%	72%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:36	ORD 16:37	26%	10%	0.8%	76%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:11	ORD 20:24	28%	10%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON